What do you think of the argument that the CCP is coming to dominance at a point where authoritarianism can be scaled efficiently through tech, for the first time? i.e. that we're reaching an "authoritarianism singularity"
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Replying to @jeremiecharris @nosilverv
I don't think it's as scalable or as efficient as you might expect from current tech, basically If they got strong AI going yeah the chinese would be fucked Not sure they're there yet tho
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Replying to @eigenrobot @nosilverv
So you're anticipating that ML won't advance faster than the discontent of the Chinese population? I hope you're right, but I think that outcome would shatter a lot of my priors
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oops wrote this before seeing your replies How likely would you say we are to see the CCP overthrown in the next decade, absent super AI tech?
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Replying to @jeremiecharris @nosilverv
No idea. CCP overthrown vs Xi overthrown is one issue, latter seems more likely Depends on just a lot of stuff Thiiiink the case for either depends on internal pressure --> external conflict --> inability to handle both, compare Argentina + Falklands
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Big issue wrt costs is that you can keep imposing more controls but controls are expensive to maintain, both in terms of manpower/updating/whatever and especially in terms of costs to economic efficiency
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Replying to @eigenrobot @nosilverv
Makes sense, I guess GPT-3 has me wondering about just how far we might be from a phase transition on this front Not AGI per se, but just getting to the point where dev efficiency can be radically increased But stacked hypotheticals, conjunction fallacy and all that
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Replying to @jeremiecharris @nosilverv
Yeah I think it's less "how costly is the control to implement" than "what second order costs are imposed by the control that you might not even see" If implementation costs get low I can see them massively increasing controls without thinking to reckon with the latter
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This is basically a Hayekian argument
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Replying to @eigenrobot @nosilverv
So if I understand, "building a stable society is really hard because of the dimensionality of the problem, so a significant change in governance strategy is likely to lead to instability"?
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partly that but also you could use as a comparison attempts to control an economy via price controls if you try to control absolutely everything you might just end up controlling nothing
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Replying to @eigenrobot @nosilverv
As in, money loses its value as a source of information about demand as totalitarian controls expand?
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Replying to @jeremiecharris @nosilverv
Yeah Well not money per se but prices, but basically yeah
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