wait hmm could you see xi jinpings authoritarianism as a /result/ of some deeper political or economic crisis in china? seems like you don't usually get more authoritarianism in good times, like just as a pattern (?)
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Replying to @eigenrobot
I think it's a result of USA. Zeihan wrote an excellent book: https://www.amazon.com/Accidental-Superpower-Generation-American-Preeminence/dp/1455583685 … My friends who read the book predicted Trump would win 2016; as extensions, the models in the book predicted isolationism / power centralization in all the countries following suit after US.
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Replying to @krzhang @eigenrobot
I'm currently reading it. The main thesis is that the US won't depend on outside oil so it would become more isolationist which will throw some areas into chaos. Cool speculation so far.
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Though i like zeihan, i think that prediction is way off. The petro dollar is too advantageous to give up, we're not leaving the middle east anytime soon
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I think Trump probably gets reelected (that bet decreases with recent events) and if he does, we probably leave the middle east faster than normal US trajectories.
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apparently we're pulling a third of our troops out of Germany
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