I don't think the Chinese can do it yet. It's hard to say really and it also depends on how much we do to help the Taiwanese. But the naval buildup they are doing may change things in the next few years.
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Replying to @sgodofsk @eigenrobot
I don't know exactly what to say about it because once we get involved the conflict gets bigger: do the Chinese go after our bases in Korea and Japan? Do they shoot at Guam? Then the question is bigger than can they seize Taiwan.
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Replying to @sgodofsk @eigenrobot
But right now I don't think the Chinese navy is capable of landing and supporting an invasion of Taiwan at this moment.
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The lesson from the Falklands is twofold IMO: Retaking Taiwan would be extremely challenging for us Keeping the Chinese from taking Taiwan might not be all that hard.
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Replying to @sgodofsk @eigenrobot
One of the most interesting things I think is how badly the British would have been screwed if the Argentines had made better use of naval mines. Highly recommend Michael Clapp's memoir on this.
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Replying to @sgodofsk @eigenrobot
Anyway the policy conclusion, in my view, is that we should move marines from Okinawa to Taiwan and station them there permanently. No need for an amphibious assault if you're just already there.
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From the MRLS wiki page Wonder if theyve upgraded since the 11th centurypic.twitter.com/nWHZPovknt
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