Dude, China wouldn't start a nuclear war over Taiwan. They don't have to. Just get a bunch of guys with boats and get them across the strait. They could annex it Crimea style, though Chinese subterfuge doesn't have the finesse Russian subterfuge does.
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Coronavirus changes things though, their timeline probably expected America to remain dependent on China. That's the biggest thing, we still depend on China for necessities such as medicine. https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/491119-momentum-grows-to-change-medical-supply-chain-from-china …
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What makes you think I'm confident about such a thing, I'm just writing possibilities. A 12.5% chance of invasion, that's pretty high don't you think?
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super high! ok we're probably agreed, this is clarifying :)
End of conversation
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