in any case nothing in politics makes sense. the U.S. is very nearly a failed state (on an institutional level, if not at every level of society), and the political system is harmful and destructive. We're fucked.
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Trump will win again despite badly botching response to Covid19 because his 62 million voters are epistemically closed and cannot find any faults in him. This is tragic. Voting is supposed to be the mechanism by which the people course correct the government. Doesn't work.
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I predict Trump will win in November and I predict that large population blue states will retaliate in every way they can eventually forcing direct confrontation with federal authorities. there might even be secession talk. possibly riots in the streets. this won't pass lightly.
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Replying to @danlistensto
what are your probabilities for these events? no opinion about them (I have no idea) just nudging toward rigor and/or just curious how confident you are
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Replying to @eigenrobot
how would I begin to assign probabilities to these outcomes? I can't really quantify it so I'll just make a qualitative assessment. 1. extremist rhetoric on the left will ramp up massively. it will be like 2017 all over again, but much worse and much more hostile.
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Replying to @danlistensto @eigenrobot
2. blue state governors will attempt token gestures to pacify their enraged voting base but ultimately they have to manage state bureucracies and will not do anything drastic. 3. blue state big city mayors WILL resist more directly. it will get weird in a cop vs. cop way.
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Replying to @danlistensto @eigenrobot
4. riots in particular likely in big blue cities with large minority populations. you know why. I realize that statement reads as cryptically racist. It's not intended to be, this is just observational.
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Replying to @danlistensto @eigenrobot
the real impact of Trump re-election depends more on what happens in congress. if Dems get House + Senate then they impeach him again and remove him again. then they impeach Pence and remove him. then we're in REAL ACTUAL crisis mode.
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Replying to @danlistensto @eigenrobot
in the double impeachment scenario I do expect the right wing Supreme Court to intervene and prevent it. this directly becomes a constitutional crisis and a Supreme Court overturning of impeachment would probably result in civil war.
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Replying to @danlistensto @eigenrobot
but anyway you asked about my degree of confidence. these outcomes are listed in decreasing degree of confidence. extremist rhetoric is like 100%, double impeachment is like, eh, who knows?
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:)
@remindmetweets on November 30
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Replying to @eigenrobot
Awesome. Here's a screencap. I'll send you a reminder in 236 days.pic.twitter.com/b5gk0WT5YF
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