god the replies are cringe
pure fucking cope
going full #SonyaRx rn
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'If you predict negative outcomes every time sometimes you'll be right' is basically what he's saying
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in theory there should be people who don't predict negative outcomes every time, who predicted negative outcomes this time, and whose predictions would then seem to have more value but they're all predicting negative outcomes but we really really would prefer positive outcomes
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Probably the finance types who keep predicting stock crashes and stuff
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he's mad that the risk manifold has a negative outcomes bias
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They took a run at sv vc bros on this and that didn't work, now they're trying the stopped clock analogy
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afaict tech people have made one fucking prediction and this was it
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It's classic broken clock cope. The experts like him make predictions without any biases, so when situation is highly irregular, biased fools like us accidentally stumble on correct prognosis. But we'll soon have an egg on our heads because things return to mean
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A single good prediction doesn't mean the person predicting is great at prediction. Could just be luck. That's how I read it.
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c o p e
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