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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 1 Apr 2020

      modest counterproposal maybe the Expert's should fucking take the L here https://twitter.com/GermsAndNumbers/status/1245310287919513603 …pic.twitter.com/2wJT3nFWCc

      16 replies 14 retweets 183 likes
      Show this thread
    2. roon ( 🔄,  🔄)‏ @tszzl 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      we need to find the third fellow and give them an award

      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
    3. Aristotle Magganas‏ @AristotleMa 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @tszzl @eigenrobot

      “Anything can happen.” Lo and behold, something does happen. To be honest I was a bit surprised that more people here did not do that and opted for very narrow confidence intervals that turned out to be off by a lot.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Aristotle Magganas‏ @AristotleMa 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @AristotleMa @tszzl @eigenrobot

      Competing failure modes: overconfidence and false precision vs. over-broad vagueness full of hedging language that cannot be pinned down ex-post.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. roon ( 🔄,  🔄)‏ @tszzl 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @AristotleMa @eigenrobot

      I hate to be this guy but the confidence interval should indeed look huge on a linear scale. Nothing else is reasonable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Aristotle Magganas‏ @AristotleMa 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @tszzl @eigenrobot

      Aristotle Magganas Retweeted Alan Cole

      When dealing with an exponentially growing threat and facing uncertainty about where you at the moment, you are totally right about that. Again, the people with the very small confidence intervals screwed up big time. My general point stands though. Eg: https://twitter.com/alanmcole/status/1245344344187551747?s=21 …https://twitter.com/AlanMCole/status/1245344344187551747 …

      Aristotle Magganas added,

      Alan ColeVerified account @AlanMCole
      What's striking about some of the really bad February COVID-dove articles was how some had caveats right there in the sentence, as if they knew there was only a brief one-to-two-week window before the opinion would expire. The biggest offenders were "for now" and "so far." pic.twitter.com/vr9lkH2lT6
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Aristotle Magganas‏ @AristotleMa 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @AristotleMa @tszzl @eigenrobot

      I mean I hedge a lot on many things because I am not expert on them, but when it comes to actually communicating information and making predictions, hedging is a problem.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @AristotleMa @tszzl

      I'm not sure that's true. 🤔 What's the problem with emphasizing an interval if you're confident in your un-confidence?

      11:41 PM - 1 Apr 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Vague & Candid Aristotle Magganas roon (🔄, 🔄)
      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Aristotle Magganas‏ @AristotleMa 2 Apr 2020
          Replying to @JoesBarAndCult @eigenrobot @tszzl

          I agree it’s *very* important to communicate real uncertainty. But I think astrology would fall under what I was talking about. Don’t astrologers make super general and vague statements that apply to many people in order to avoid being pinned down by empirical results ex post?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. Aristotle Magganas‏ @AristotleMa 2 Apr 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @tszzl

          Definitely. It is important to communicate when you are actually unsure. Sometimes, as you say, the fact that you don’t know *is* the relevant information. I hedge all the time bc I genuinely don’t know. I am only highlighting a problem w/ ppl being unfalsifiably vague.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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