modest counterproposal maybe the Expert's should fucking take the L here https://twitter.com/GermsAndNumbers/status/1245310287919513603 …pic.twitter.com/2wJT3nFWCc
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I agree it’s *very* important to communicate real uncertainty. But I think astrology would fall under what I was talking about. Don’t astrologers make super general and vague statements that apply to many people in order to avoid being pinned down by empirical results ex post?
Definitely. It is important to communicate when you are actually unsure. Sometimes, as you say, the fact that you don’t know *is* the relevant information. I hedge all the time bc I genuinely don’t know. I am only highlighting a problem w/ ppl being unfalsifiably vague.
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