modest counterproposal maybe the Expert's should fucking take the L here https://twitter.com/GermsAndNumbers/status/1245310287919513603 …pic.twitter.com/2wJT3nFWCc
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modest counterproposal maybe the Expert's should fucking take the L here https://twitter.com/GermsAndNumbers/status/1245310287919513603 …pic.twitter.com/2wJT3nFWCc
the aleatoric uncertainty bands definitely are disappointing here, but the whole point of expertise is understanding the immense epistemic uncertainty in these forecasts
It looks like most of the experts surveyed *didn't* understand it though...
the point of expertise is understanding and communicating the assumptions necessary for these forecasts to have the right coverage, not getting the CI right in the real world
the first is tractable, the second impossible. someone who gets every forecast right isn't an expert, they're a god
dude excepting three weirdos they just suck at predicting out of sample i think youre overthinking this
they do. but the point is that good forecasts are of the form "if <assumptions>, then <forecast> with <probability>", not "<forecast> with <probability>" and i think you'd be hard pressed to find an expert saying "i was confident in <assumptions>"
please dont take this the wrong way but this is a completely insane take
It's so utterly bizarre that I took a look through his history to see if it was a troll. I don't think it is.
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