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eigenrobot's profile
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eigenrobot
eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 1 Apr 2020

      modest counterproposal maybe the Expert's should fucking take the L here https://twitter.com/GermsAndNumbers/status/1245310287919513603 …pic.twitter.com/2wJT3nFWCc

      16 replies 14 retweets 183 likes
      Show this thread
    2. alex hayes‏ @alexpghayes 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      the aleatoric uncertainty bands definitely are disappointing here, but the whole point of expertise is understanding the immense epistemic uncertainty in these forecasts

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @alexpghayes @eigenrobot

      It looks like most of the experts surveyed *didn't* understand it though...

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    4. alex hayes‏ @alexpghayes 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @phl43 @eigenrobot

      the point of expertise is understanding and communicating the assumptions necessary for these forecasts to have the right coverage, not getting the CI right in the real world

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. alex hayes‏ @alexpghayes 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @alexpghayes @phl43 @eigenrobot

      the first is tractable, the second impossible. someone who gets every forecast right isn't an expert, they're a god

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @alexpghayes @phl43

      dude excepting three weirdos they just suck at predicting out of sample i think youre overthinking this

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    7. alex hayes‏ @alexpghayes 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot @phl43

      they do. but the point is that good forecasts are of the form "if <assumptions>, then <forecast> with <probability>", not "<forecast> with <probability>" and i think you'd be hard pressed to find an expert saying "i was confident in <assumptions>"

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 1 Apr 2020
      Replying to @alexpghayes @phl43

      please dont take this the wrong way but this is a completely insane take

      8:24 PM - 1 Apr 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • loaded dice genetic gambler CCPandemic crankycatcoder Tequehead bosco
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. crankycatcoder‏ @crankycatcoder 1 Apr 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          It's so utterly bizarre that I took a look through his history to see if it was a troll. I don't think it is.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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