further specific counterproposal maybe @GermsAndNumbers should think a bit about why A⊆B does not necessarily imply B⊆A
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this guys better https://twitter.com/robertstats/status/1245665871961436160?s=19 …
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we need to find the third fellow and give them an award
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The one with the highest point estimate was actually about spot on!
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my favorite is the second one "it could be no cases...or all of the cases"
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Me too! Mad respect!
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the aleatoric uncertainty bands definitely are disappointing here, but the whole point of expertise is understanding the immense epistemic uncertainty in these forecasts
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if you expect a forecast two weeks into the future based on systematically biased data to have correct coverage jokes on you. this information doesn't appear in the quantitative forecast but is exactly what an expert should tell you
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