Slopes of lines for 91, 01, 07 look the same. So the recovery rate is the same? But the lowest point of recession was deeper so recovery took longer. Ok let's use this slope to predict how long would a recovery of 30% lost jobs look like.
-
-
-
Replying to @eigenrobot @RokoMijicUK and
Possibly some complications to that approach though. Last recession was driven by a debt crisis, stylistically those can take a long time to unwind There were also major structural changes going on in the economy at that point; may have been more completed by now
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @eigenrobot @RokoMijicUK and
It's very possible and I would very much like us to have a nice V-shaped recovery. But I see no guarantee. Remember the entire world is facing this shock more or less at once. That means we're affected not just by the stop in domestic demand but also global.
1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @AlexGodofsky @eigenrobot and
Plus the sheer scale of layoffs and bankruptcies may destroy a lot of organizational capital and reduce our potential output.
2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes -
-
Replying to @eigenrobot @RokoMijicUK and
fwiw I have more faith in Jerome Powell to Do The Right Thing than I did in Bernanke or Yellen, in part because of past behavior but largely because he's basically the Hero of Kvatch right now, fighting his way through hordes of demons to close the Oblivion Gate
1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @AlexGodofsky @eigenrobot and
and that's gotta do something to you
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @AlexGodofsky @RokoMijicUK and
Only so much you can accomplish with monetary policy unfortunately :/
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
"the virus can stay contagious longer than you can stay solvent"
-
-
Replying to @eigenrobot @AlexGodofsky and
This kind of effect would weigh in favour of variolation to shorten the lockdowns and other disruptions.
0 replies 0 retweets 3 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
