The OP asks whether the bounce back will take 30+ years. What is your estimate of the rebound time?
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Replying to @VectorOfBasis
6 months from when the disease is dealt with, so a total of a year. Any economists care to agree/disagree?
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Replying to @RokoMijic @RokoMijicUK2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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Replying to @VectorOfBasis @RokoMijicUK and
I used to think like Roko, and that’s still in the realm of possibility, but I’ve been updating from the way others are reacting that this may be more serious. Lots of those SMBs close and never come back. How long does that dislocation last? The economy isn’t very agile anymore.
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Replying to @WilliamAEden @robinhanson and
Do we have any previous data to go on? This seems like a question where historical data would be very applicable. 2008?
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Replying to @RokoMijic @RokoMijicUK and
Recessions have been getting longer since '91, independent of whether they're shallow ('01) or deep ('08)
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Replying to @eigenrobot @RokoMijicUK and
Slopes of lines for 91, 01, 07 look the same. So the recovery rate is the same? But the lowest point of recession was deeper so recovery took longer. Ok let's use this slope to predict how long would a recovery of 30% lost jobs look like.
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Replying to @VectorOfBasis @eigenrobot and
Eyeballing from the 2008 line: 50 months for recovery of -6% jobs. So 250 months ~= 20 years for recovery of 30% jobs?
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Replying to @VectorOfBasis @eigenrobot and
I think this crisis us different in kind, so the recovery rate will most likely be different. But probably of about this order of magnitude?
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Depends on a lot. If we had a vaccine today and everyone reopened their borders, probably quick recovery Longer this drags on the more firms go belly up Lots of possible secondary crises, financial or geopolitical or epidemiological, could make it much much worse
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