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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. Roko.eth‏ @RokoMijic 30 Mar 2020

      Roko.eth Retweeted Balaji Srinivasan

      As the covid-19 crisis has progressed, there have been scary moments. But the worst possibilities have been ruled out. It mostly doesn't kill people who are young and healthy. One way or another we'll get over it in 6 months, and the economy will probably bounce back IMO.https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1244709625577877504 …

      Roko.eth added,

      Balaji SrinivasanVerified account @balajis
      It took about 10 years for the economy to recover from the Great Recession. And jobless claims are >4X what they were during worst weeks of the last crisis. Everyone’s guessing, but naive extrapolation would forecast a generational rebuild. 30+ years? https://irle.berkeley.edu/the-post-recession-labor-market-an-incomplete-recovery/ … pic.twitter.com/RwANwK2H3y
      Show this thread
      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    2. vector (wagmi)‏ @VectorOfBasis 30 Mar 2020
      Replying to @RokoMijic @RokoMijicUK

      The OP asks whether the bounce back will take 30+ years. What is your estimate of the rebound time?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Roko.eth‏ @RokoMijic 30 Mar 2020
      Replying to @VectorOfBasis

      6 months from when the disease is dealt with, so a total of a year. Any economists care to agree/disagree?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. vector (wagmi)‏ @VectorOfBasis 30 Mar 2020
      Replying to @RokoMijic @RokoMijicUK

      cc @robinhanson @JimDMiller @lymanstoneky @WilliamAEden @eigenrobot

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. William Eden‏ @WilliamAEden 30 Mar 2020
      Replying to @VectorOfBasis @RokoMijicUK and

      I used to think like Roko, and that’s still in the realm of possibility, but I’ve been updating from the way others are reacting that this may be more serious. Lots of those SMBs close and never come back. How long does that dislocation last? The economy isn’t very agile anymore.

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    6. Roko.eth‏ @RokoMijic 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @WilliamAEden @robinhanson and

      Do we have any previous data to go on? This seems like a question where historical data would be very applicable. 2008?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @RokoMijic @RokoMijicUK and

      Recessions have been getting longer since '91, independent of whether they're shallow ('01) or deep ('08)

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    8. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot @RokoMijicUK and

      pic.twitter.com/C3tEtw215S

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
    9. vector (wagmi)‏ @VectorOfBasis 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot @RokoMijicUK and

      Slopes of lines for 91, 01, 07 look the same. So the recovery rate is the same? But the lowest point of recession was deeper so recovery took longer. Ok let's use this slope to predict how long would a recovery of 30% lost jobs look like.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @VectorOfBasis @RokoMijicUK and

      wheeeeeeee

      5:03 AM - 31 Mar 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Abeoma Font of Argh (the coolest) vector (wagmi)
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 31 Mar 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @RokoMijicUK and

          Possibly some complications to that approach though. Last recession was driven by a debt crisis, stylistically those can take a long time to unwind There were also major structural changes going on in the economy at that point; may have been more completed by now

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky 31 Mar 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @RokoMijicUK and

          It's very possible and I would very much like us to have a nice V-shaped recovery. But I see no guarantee. Remember the entire world is facing this shock more or less at once. That means we're affected not just by the stop in domestic demand but also global.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        4. Show replies

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