i guess if I'm gonna rag on Yglesias for bad predictions I should put mine out there. I think the actual death toll is going to be lower than feared; I think we get to a million in America but only by counting additional deaths over expected rather than by confirmed COVID.
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I think the social and geopolitical effects are going to be profound and widespread. Some of them might even be positive. Most won't be.
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this will topple governments and fracture long-standing international institutions. probably it will result in a war or two; hopefully we'll look back on it as a war or two rather than just one huge war.
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