this is a helpful figure no claims about accuracy of this particular model--I certainly don't have context around these data, or familiarity with this specific class of models rather,https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1244457194751315969 …
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so if your question is "how many people have contracted c*v*d", which is an important input into other analyses, get ready to buckle up and grind through some assumption sets that will generate a range of estimates just don't stop at the published positives and call it a day
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