published data are not that useful on their own, preprocessing, because of data quality issues - test shortages - no testing of many mild cases - deaths with no tests - etc this kind of analysis is necessary if you want a better sense of what's actually happening at scale
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so if your question is "how many people have contracted c*v*d", which is an important input into other analyses, get ready to buckle up and grind through some assumption sets that will generate a range of estimates just don't stop at the published positives and call it a day
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Looks similar to my own sketches, with the same caveats. I hope we get the actual changes in mortality to the previous years soon enough. Would have been great to have those for China.
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Yeah -_-
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