I have been talking with people about what to do rn
while I find China a problem and the absolute state of our Elites worse this is immediate and bad
And if you want to pick at a problem in the near term this is where there's need
cc @liminal_warmth @orthonormalist @seconds_0https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1244453401183715329 …
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Previous cycle is 1865-1946; cycle before that is 1794-1865, culminating in the American Civil War. The shortness of the earlier cycle is considered a shortcoming in the methodology even by the authors. They identify 3 more cycles before that, back to 1433.
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You are right that this is overly deterministic but it does take account of a number of cyclical factors; I was a history major in college and I was on my way to forming my own such theory when I came upon theirs which was better. YMMV. Fascinating shit though.
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