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this is so obvious to me I feel I must be missing something for your to say it but NYC has barely started obviously????
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yeah I'm just saying that if you're trying to estimate c*v*d deaths from changes in total deaths you also probably need to account for the way that lockdown measures might be affecting non-plague death trends
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do we know if that effect is Real and not just an artefact of delayed reporting?
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no one knows anything

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