"WHO COULD HAVE KNOWN"
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Various factors to that. Possibly climate helping. Possibly issue is there but less attention on it. With China as an example, seems like it's relatively easy to conceal what's going on locally given how much noise there is globally.
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Point 1: There’s a case parts of Africa might be more prepared for outbreak-type events because that’s what their health infra is geared towards Also surprised by point 2—I was constantly in H1N1 hotspots in Chicago with 0 effect on everyday life, even if I knew things were bad
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do they even have enough testing for us to know?
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nope! otoh if it were bad probably we'd see bodies on the other other hand maybe there just aren't so many old folks in those countries
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I'm unclear if Africa ends up being OK. It's still getting a foothold there, and it may still be very, very bad.https://twitter.com/JeanLuc_Lemur/status/1244342808783142913 …
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Yeah especially with the virality and resilience of this thing
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Didn’t expect the closure cascade after Trump’s speech. Thought Seattle would be hit harder by now. Thought my area would be hit harder by now, but the province is only releasing regional numbers so who knows.
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If transmission cycle is 10 days, and the African and Indian climates lower R0 by 20%, then through 3 months we would see about 10x more cases in Europe (with identical starting conditions). Unfortunately going from R0 of 2 to 1.6 only reduces total infected from 50% to 37.5%
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Basically the climate just flattens the curve.
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