It would need to be a full shutdown for multiple months AND we'd need to confirm a really, really good mortality improvement in Germany over our China/Italy/Spain numbers.
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You mean that in the present situation a complete lockdown is good, unless it is for multiple months? Or do you mean that lockdown will work only if it is complete and for multiple months?
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yeah brace for Thursday's numbers I guess

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I don't currently have a "this is the line" in my head but a few things that are definitely "over the line."
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In 1929, the stock market collapse caused a 4 per 100,000 increase in suicides. That would be 12,000 today, and we're more depressed and drug addled than they were. So, this would need to kill more than 10,000 people with underlying conditions, to be "break even" on life

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Either an exceptionally bad outcome even with the lockdown (like rapid spread to most of the entire population), or a good outcome in another country that didn't lock down. Though the first doesn't look plausible to me right now.
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I don't think so either but if we're still quarantined in a year something has gone horribly wrong
End of conversation
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