geopolitical stuff to watch for if things continue 1. state stability in authoritarian countries 2. democratic control in non-authoritarian countries 3. long-term border hardening 4. autarky gets a day in the sun
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maybe real easy to postpone elections for public health reasons or because Crisis expect we get to see how deep democratic roots go in some places
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plausibly see a shift away from two income households if schools are more often closed or unreliable, and/or if UBI or similar gets implemented
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international travel is probably toast for the near future more wfh arrangements or at least flexibility revitalization of state bureaucracy in US, or great devolution to the states, or both US universities hosed w/o international students, big changes coming there
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EU maybe cracking up, Schengen seems tenuous Bad news for refugees/migrants/immigration Nationalism has a new raison detre US maybe steps further back from hegemony, v long term consequences there
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sense of peril --> farmer memeplex makes wins vs forager memeplex quite generally greater central economic planning as stubborn residual from likely recession acceleration of biotech, maybe esp in US greater social monitoring everywhere
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probably slowing of mass urbanization trend, less reasons on the margin to be in expensive cities for many with wfh available if that comes through and if travel declines social flattening
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eigenrobot Retweeted Costa
these emergency measures have a strange way of sticking we still have the TSA and DHS nearly 20 years on much harder to revert a change once made than to maintain status quohttps://twitter.com/costa11235/status/1239947648112656384?s=19 …
eigenrobot added,
Costa @costa11235Replying to @eigenrobotNo. Robot, just no. Healthcare is not an EU competence. Never was, you can bet however it will become one. Schengen’s doing fine also, since if you lock down internal movement you also need to lock down external movement. But, these things will all go back to normal4 replies 1 retweet 42 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @eigenrobot
Costa Retweeted Holger Hestermeyer
https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1239448141759422465?s=21 …https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1239448141759422465 …
Costa added,
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @costa11235 @eigenrobot
Costa Retweeted Holger Hestermeyer
https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1239473136938168321?s=21 …https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1239473136938168321 …
Costa added,
Holger Hestermeyer @hhestermReplying to @bopanc @alanbeattie @adam_toozeThe Commission. It set up a fund, started stocktaking measures for medical production, apparently threatened France and Germany with infringement proceedings (reported in the Italian press) to ensure medical supplies can flow to Italy.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
we'll see how long that lasts :/
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Replying to @eigenrobot
The HRE lasted also for far longer than anybody expected. I do not and cannot want to make an prediction for the EU, but EU federalism has got very high support, especially among younger generations
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