I'm not confident China is actually out of the woods here. Even supposing they manage to keep the virus under control going forward, what happens when the rest of the world hits a deep recession simultaneously?
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As this goes on for longer periods, I'm wondering if it turns out to be less an economic test, less a state capacity test, and more an exercise relying on some kind of deep social cohesion. Really hard to say what places are well positioned for such a challenge.
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The authoritarian vs libertarian spectrum may not be a primary determinant here, probably going to see a simultaneous move toward some combination of (far more, on the margin) jackboots and chaos everywhere.
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Similarly left/right economics. Old points of tension around policy are just unraveling. Things are gonna get super fucking weird.
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Coming soon to a country near you
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The world needs a three month payment holiday. Not a debt forgiveness. A payment holiday. [No, I don't have any simple way to do this, either.]
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