it doesnt seem like collapses are inevitable! consider: governments did not generally collapse directly because of plague in historical settings where plagues were far worse. Athens, Byzantium, Antonines, most of medieval Europe in the 14th century
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consider: possibility that plague is the health of the state per
@St_Rev plague prevention is basically the most persuasive argument for existence of /some/ state function in a modern world on the other hand . . .Show this thread -
in the past, maybe people didnt really expect the state to prevent disease, and now it's a core function? if so, maybe a serious outbreak is more delegitimizing than it would have been in the pre-War era
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also consider: - a decimated population is far less likely to be in physical condition to revolt - politicians are disproportionately old and also sociable and inclined to travel. May melt many hierarchies - coincidence of a likely global recession (do these cause revolution?)
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Some of its members certainly haven't. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/ …
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It is possible that Ireland gets a government due to this.
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I voted "many more", I think maybe ~10 governments fall in 2020, counterfactual without coronavirus would be ~1 gov fall in 2020. This is taken purely from my ***, I didn't research this, I don't know much about this.
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so it looks like I was wrong by a factor of 2, which i count as a win, given how much effort (ie. none) i put in my predictionhttps://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1452971879229177861?s=20 …
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Not directly. But the economic effects could lead to dissatisfaction and riots in some countries with fragile governments. We could easily see a repeat of 2011.
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