the main thing you should take from this thread is not whatever object level conclusion he suggests by the end (havent read that far) but rather the meta lesson that if faced with a question requiring sensitive longitudinal macro data to answer correctly you should simply give uphttps://twitter.com/oren_cass/status/1230505649794166785 …
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there are lots of ways to deal with hedonics in inflation numbers and all of them are bad no one knows whether the aggregate is is some sense better off in 2020 than 1990 and in some ways the question is simply impossibly vague let it go its fine no one knows
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Replying to @eigenrobot
I think it is clearly and unambiguously true that we are in aggregate better off today than in 1990. The question is not if, but how much? This means these issues matter a *little* less, but still a lot for questions like “what was the average level of real interest rates?” etc
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Replying to @moneyreflux @eigenrobot
If you are counting China and Africa in your aggregate, then I agree. If we are talking about the United States only I am not yet convinced.
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Replying to @reighleyc @eigenrobot
Absolutely no question for the US either, in aggregate. The level of estimated real GDP doubled, while population increased maybe 33%. Hedonic differences don’t get you anywhere near that much. Medical innovation alone over that time makes you much better off, let alone tech etc.
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Replying to @moneyreflux @reighleyc
depends what kind of aggregate you care about
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Replying to @eigenrobot @reighleyc
If you have a non-standard meaning for “if the aggregate is better off,” then sure. If you mean some subset of people, that’s fine, just say so. But even then I would argue all reasonable subsets (working class etc) in the US are meaningfully “better off” today than in 1990.
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dont worry youll get to agnosticism on these matters soon
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