I have made zero preparations, I expect this will be a complete non-event for me, I would feel extremely silly wearing any kind of mask
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Replying to @AlexGodofsky @eigenrobot and
the public health response already feels massively excessive
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Replying to @sgodofsk @AlexGodofsky and
People I respect more with backgrounds in bio and epidemiology are more worried, though not shrill. Would I pay $300 to potentially change my survival outcomes by .1%? I probably should.
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Replying to @orthonormalist @sgodofsk and
to get to that sort of number you need something like 80,000 US cases
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Replying to @AlexGodofsky @orthonormalist and
(and that's assuming 100% efficacy of the preventative measure, and 0% efficacy of any other things you might do in the intermediate time)
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Replying to @AlexGodofsky @orthonormalist and
also wearing mopp sucks ass
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Replying to @sgodofsk @AlexGodofsky and
I think that 80,000 US cases is not out of the realm of probability (though I wouldn't call it likely)--and I'd like this piece of gear anyway. I'll probably watch the tracker over the weekend.
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Replying to @orthonormalist @sgodofsk and
right, 80,000 is not impossible, but say the odds are 25% (which seems very high) - then you are paying $1200 per 0.1% chance
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Replying to @AlexGodofsky @orthonormalist and
Alex Godofsky Retweeted Sharpe Actuary
https://twitter.com/Sharpe_Actuary/status/1223306817616388098 … multiply all of my numbers by 10; I was working off a roughly remembered potential 25% mortality rate
Alex Godofsky added,
Sharpe Actuary @Sharpe_ActuaryCoronavirus map with latest data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 … 9776 confirmed cases; 213 deaths; 187 recovered. 2.2% death rate; 1.9% recovery rate. Close to 96% of cases may end in death or recovery. Death rate still very unclear1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
This Tweet is unavailable.
I just don't believe numbers from China either way Your error bars should be Substantial imo
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Replying to @eigenrobot @petergodofsky and
I agree but it's a small portion of the error bars that overlap with the relevant region
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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