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eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

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    1. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @eigenrobot @orthonormalist @theprepared

      I have made zero preparations, I expect this will be a complete non-event for me, I would feel extremely silly wearing any kind of mask

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    2. Steven Godofsky‏ @sgodofsk 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @AlexGodofsky @eigenrobot and

      the public health response already feels massively excessive

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. ☉rthonormalist‏ @orthonormalist 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @sgodofsk @AlexGodofsky and

      People I respect more with backgrounds in bio and epidemiology are more worried, though not shrill. Would I pay $300 to potentially change my survival outcomes by .1%? I probably should.

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @orthonormalist @sgodofsk and

      to get to that sort of number you need something like 80,000 US cases

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @AlexGodofsky @orthonormalist and

      (and that's assuming 100% efficacy of the preventative measure, and 0% efficacy of any other things you might do in the intermediate time)

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Steven Godofsky‏ @sgodofsk 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @AlexGodofsky @orthonormalist and

      also wearing mopp sucks ass

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. ☉rthonormalist‏ @orthonormalist 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @sgodofsk @AlexGodofsky and

      I think that 80,000 US cases is not out of the realm of probability (though I wouldn't call it likely)--and I'd like this piece of gear anyway. I'll probably watch the tracker over the weekend.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @orthonormalist @sgodofsk and

      right, 80,000 is not impossible, but say the odds are 25% (which seems very high) - then you are paying $1200 per 0.1% chance

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @AlexGodofsky @orthonormalist and

      Alex Godofsky Retweeted Sharpe Actuary

      https://twitter.com/Sharpe_Actuary/status/1223306817616388098 … multiply all of my numbers by 10; I was working off a roughly remembered potential 25% mortality rate

      Alex Godofsky added,

      Sharpe Actuary @Sharpe_Actuary
      Coronavirus map with latest data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 … 9776 confirmed cases; 213 deaths; 187 recovered. 2.2% death rate; 1.9% recovery rate. Close to 96% of cases may end in death or recovery. Death rate still very unclear
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. This Tweet is unavailable.
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 31 Jan 2020
      Replying to @petergodofsky @AlexGodofsky and

      I just don't believe numbers from China either way Your error bars should be Substantial imo

      10:34 AM - 31 Jan 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • Definitely Not Eevee halvorz ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Alex Godofsky
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky 31 Jan 2020
          Replying to @eigenrobot @petergodofsky and

          I agree but it's a small portion of the error bars that overlap with the relevant region

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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