huh I would not have intuited that actually
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ok here's my thought. we're discussing the probability of seeing a k-needle an n-haystack for k=n, the haystack contains one needle. as you add one flip to the end (or beginning) of the list, you add exactly one new needle
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possible transitions for 3-needles: {HHH} => {HHH} or {HHH, HHT} {HHT} => {HHT, HTH} or {HHT, HTT} {HTH} => {HTH, THT} or {HTH, THH} (other cases reduce to those by symmetry i think)
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Replying to @glowcoil @ajixander
im thinking these deeper cases are just kind of grinding like this i expect theres notation but i doubt its much fun
11:01 PM - 28 Jan 2020
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