(Spanish link) it's official: two cases in France. On the one hand it seems to mostly kill old or otherwise already unhealthy people, on the other it's so contagious it may reach more than 2 people per person infected, so, fuckhttps://www.antena3.com/noticias/mundo/francia-confirma-dos-casos-coronavirus-wuhan_202001245e2b47c00cf2825fd5c34d44.html …
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despiste rts, I appreciate any info that might suggest this is not such a big deal. ... pls
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Replying to @eigenrobot
why would that be biased in the direction of making it less instead of more worrying
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Replying to @SilverVVulpes
guess it depends on your priors and your loss function
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Replying to @eigenrobot
if there's uncertainty, the variance spreads. same when people accept there's a positive trend in climate models but say they're "inaccurate" if you really believed that you would be *more* worried since higher % of catastrophic extreme
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Replying to @SilverVVulpes @eigenrobot
keep hearing that argument but I still don't understand it or trust it feels Pascal wager-y to me
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Replying to @halvorz @eigenrobot
not mean to be rude but that's so wrong I don't know where to start from except explaining it with a simple stat graph you must know??? https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/climate-change/ … Imagine if this got flatter (which is what happens with more uncertainty) then the shaded area after 6 is biggerpic.twitter.com/QWoYNbebSh
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I have other beliefs about the curve, specific data quality issues, and delivery
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