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    1. Jared Dillian‏Verified account @dailydirtnap 21 Dec 2019

      2/ Last year's freshman class was the biggest, and demographically speaking, it's all downhill from here for the next 20 years. All else equal, enrollment at colleges and universities will drop 15%. Most schools won't be able to handle it.

      2 replies 4 retweets 63 likes
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    2. Jared Dillian‏Verified account @dailydirtnap 21 Dec 2019

      3/ Colleges and universities have been in spend mode while times were good, on academic buildings, athletic facilities, and lots and lots of administration. Mostly fixed costs. The cuts will be very painful. This year, the first year of the downturn, has already been a disaster.

      1 reply 1 retweet 60 likes
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    3. Jared Dillian‏Verified account @dailydirtnap 21 Dec 2019

      4/ Athletic programs get a lot of attention but should probably get more. The myth is that football programs generate copious revenue through schools, directly and indirectly, through alumni support. It's absolutely false in 99% of cases. Football is a huge drain on resources.

      5 replies 6 retweets 70 likes
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    4. Jared Dillian‏Verified account @dailydirtnap 21 Dec 2019

      5/ Tenured faculty are fixed costs (can't be fired) but if you push hard enough, they are variable. In most cases, the academics aren't the problem--they are cheap and add a lot of value. But they will probably be the first to go, if you make things hard enough for them.

      2 replies 0 retweets 43 likes
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    5. Jared Dillian‏Verified account @dailydirtnap 21 Dec 2019

      6/ Schools will resort to lowering standards to keep enrollment up, but that's a race to the bottom, as everyone will be doing that simultaneously. Most schools cannot withstand even a 3% drop in enrollment without having a crisis.

      2 replies 5 retweets 53 likes
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    6. Jared Dillian‏Verified account @dailydirtnap 21 Dec 2019

      7/ Small liberal arts colleges will feel the most pain, and will probably account for the majority of the closures. State universities will need explicit taxpayer support. The easy solution here is to lay off administrative staff, but schools will resist as long as possible.

      5 replies 4 retweets 70 likes
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    7. Jared Dillian‏Verified account @dailydirtnap 21 Dec 2019

      8/ I've put years into thinking of ways to play this--textbook companies, student housing REITs, but there aren't many big, liquid, obvious trades. Honestly, the best trade here is schadenfreude--everyone gets to feel a bear market at some point. /end

      14 replies 6 retweets 99 likes
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    9. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 23 Dec 2019
      Replying to @_djpn @dailydirtnap

      Yeah unis are so fucked Similarly PhD students

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. This Tweet is unavailable.
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot 23 Dec 2019
      Replying to @anastasivsrex @_djpn @dailydirtnap

      hmm naw I don't Just not tooled for it culturally

      9:13 PM - 23 Dec 2019
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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