Silver's objective, polls-based Monte Carlo simulations of general elections were and remain the gold standard. Everything else he does that is politics related- his idiotic fixation on "party decides/endorsement primary", his pontificating and punditry, his podcasts- are trash.
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To torture an analogy slightly, he's like a market commentator who, upon realizing that the data that matters only needs updating once per quarter, spends 90% of his time tweeting about the Chilean PMIs and 1% moves in the Dow Transports instead of just doing nothing.
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also his 2012 book blames the financial crash on the mortgage traders not understanding the probabilities. he completely ignores all the evidence that shows they knew they were trash, but had no incentive to care
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he was probably substantially correct about this
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mortgage traders didn't cause the crisis, you can sort of split hairs about who exactly was to blame but underwriters and brokers pushing loans onto people with no income deserve way more than people trading CDOs.
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probably right, and I don't know the finance industry well enough to know what to call different people, but basically the people evaliating the risk had no incentive to care:https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/12/cathy-oneil-why-nate-silver-is-not-just-wrong-but-maliciously-wrong.html …
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basically everyone knew or should have known it was shit but typically someone ends up holding the bag in this case that someone (from 05 onward) were the gses check their 10ks against the total value of mortgages generated broken out by credit score
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not exactly sure how this makes silver right or invalidates
@mathbabedotorg's criticism, but i also know nothing about finance1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @imaginary_nums @quantian1 and
best not to have Opinion's about it tbh had to go way into storage and dust this one off
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Replying to @eigenrobot @quantian1 and
thank's. i have opinions about silver because i've interacted with and he's incredibly full of himself for understanding the basics of polling but when we helped him out with some advanced stuff, he was too dumb to get it.
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oh that's infuriating and makes me respect him less blegh I'm sorry
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Replying to @eigenrobot @quantian1 and
regarding sridhar's original point, I think it's that nate's product is pretty much a descriptive statistic of polling data. that's great but it is not a predictive model of public opinion
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Replying to @imaginary_nums @eigenrobot and
nate's popularity comes largely from people not being clear on the distinction, and now nate is using that popularity as a platform for his opinions that have nothing to do with polling data
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End of conversation
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