professional observation that silvers mostly done good work, he had a better model in 2016 than anyone else and it put out a reasonable prediction, and guys like this are clowning themselveshttps://twitter.com/RadishHarmers/status/1188893775034236929 …
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Replying to @eigenrobot @Theophite
Silver's objective, polls-based Monte Carlo simulations of general elections were and remain the gold standard. Everything else he does that is politics related- his idiotic fixation on "party decides/endorsement primary", his pontificating and punditry, his podcasts- are trash.
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To torture an analogy slightly, he's like a market commentator who, upon realizing that the data that matters only needs updating once per quarter, spends 90% of his time tweeting about the Chilean PMIs and 1% moves in the Dow Transports instead of just doing nothing.
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also his 2012 book blames the financial crash on the mortgage traders not understanding the probabilities. he completely ignores all the evidence that shows they knew they were trash, but had no incentive to care
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he was probably substantially correct about this
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mortgage traders didn't cause the crisis, you can sort of split hairs about who exactly was to blame but underwriters and brokers pushing loans onto people with no income deserve way more than people trading CDOs.
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gses
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