professional observation that silvers mostly done good work, he had a better model in 2016 than anyone else and it put out a reasonable prediction, and guys like this are clowning themselveshttps://twitter.com/RadishHarmers/status/1188893775034236929 …
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He says Silver's forecast is too volatile, and used an options pricing model to perform a sort of replication supposedly demonstrating this. I read the paper though and wasn't terribly convinced that his result would hold up under a more detailed and accurate model.
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yeah meh
End of conversation
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Taleb’s funny, he’s good inside his circle of competence, but when he strays outside that circle he’s trash. And he spends like half the pages of anti fragile raging against the idiots yet intellectual who do that. Cracks me up every time
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