My hunch is that international trade will look very different in ten years, and probably be broken into US and Chinese blocs (+maybe neutrals). A competent foreign policy would involve aggressive negotiations to make the US bloc (formal or informal) as large as possible.
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I don't see the US taking this path in a Trump presidency, and possibly not in any alternative. Obama tried to pivot to the Pacific and failed hard, and everyone fought TPP. In retrospect, the time since 9/11 to today looks like a slow suicide by the American empire.
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I don't usually write seriously about policy because I care a lot about it and inevitably fail to have any effect, which is deeply frustrating and dispiriting. I am making an exception here because the stakes actually seem high. The global order is going to be restructured.
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I don't write this because I love my country (although I do, in spite of everything) or because I think the American order is absolutely wonderful. Rather, I write it because the alternative world is very, very bad.
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eigenrobot Retweeted eigenrobot
I have great affection for the people of China (see below) but the Chinese State is an eldritch monstrosity. It is a case study in how bad life in a totalitarian state can be in the Information Age. And they are extending their mode of operation abroad.https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/989148696293003264?s=19 …
eigenrobot added,
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I just want to grab our Statesmen and their foreign counterparts and citizens everywhere by the lapels and slap them to consciousness of the fact that THEY COULD LOSE. Good things are not all maintained by magic! American supremacy is not preordained! History is not over!
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And even if you dislike American power internationally--a perfectly reasonable position that, frankly, I share--you have to reckon with the fact the the alternative is not youe ideal world but a counterfactual where the vacuum is filled by China.
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Absent a liberal revolution in China, this seems likely to be the story of the next fifty years of history. Good luck to everyone.
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incidentally it's not just the corporations china has been kidnapping people from abroad for years and not just in Hong Kong few discuss this https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/29/the-disappeared-china-renditions-kidnapping/ …
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