...so I had the rough idea, but it turns out this is a much deeper rabbit hole than I expected. found an 83-page manual on assessing fish stock, and a massive technical paper from the UN food and ag organization
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3.1.1 gives calculation of Total Allowable Catch. "Implicit in the calculation of a TAC are criteria which specify some aim of management...such goals should be unambiguous...many management goals do not directly translate into a target fishing mortality rate."
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it's unclear how much the US and WA use the UN guidelines
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"indirect assessment of current abundance can be done using the technique of Virtual Population Analysis or by means of production models which relate catch rates to the abundance of the resource"
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"The main problem with indirect techniques is that they rely for estimates of current abundance on a variety of ad hoc methods for calibrating effort efficiency. They are correspondingly inaccurate where effort calibration is difficult.
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A second problem is that the calculations can be sensitive to the estimate of the natural mortality rate of the fish stock. In many cases this parameter can only be estimated with considerable uncertainty"
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an important part of this whole ordeal is estimating "recruitment" which seems to be the survival rate of the fish and varies from species to species and location to location
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and now my lunch break is over and I am probably never going to return to this topic again, thanks friends
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there's a fisheries science program at uw
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Replying to @eigenrobot
I don't actually like fishing enough to delve *that* deeply though the animal population estimate problem in *general* is pretty interesting I was temporarily possessed by a curiosity spirit
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