new belief all effect sizes are zero except in cases where the reseacher desperately wants them to be zero in which case they are Quite Large
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there's also the overfitting that comes with trad econometric methods that don't take advantage of modern regularization techniques, but that's a problem in the other direction anyway I guess my message is something like "be very careful interpreting R^2 and changes thereof"
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thank you for coming to my unhinged ted talk :) and please do accept my apologies for the initial exasperation, this is at an intersection of about twelve personal betes noires

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The graph I presented was based on lowess, so was willing to entertain (& model, if necessary) any nonlinear effects. But obviously I didn't see any. Or by model specs do you mean an more exotic estimator than RE?
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yeah something more exotic than RE you could probably do something like RE with a bazillion interactions and some elastic net regularization for a first pass if you want to handle some of these issues
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