"curious whats going on here hmmm"https://twitter.com/NickWolfinger/status/1103403311577718784 …
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a sort-of upper bound on AFQT explanatory power for future earnings by (say) looking at age 18 AFQT (did they give it at 18? at whatever year) and and doing a univariate(ish) nonparametric estimation of (income at 40 | AFQT at 18) say, throw these into a RF and pull the R^2
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but, looking at changes in R^2 for all of these explanatory variables with and without AFQT isn't going to get you what you suggested in your analysis, because those other explanatory variables are collectively almost surely quite correlated with AFQT
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This is what I did, except with 26 data points of income & afqt early on. So the R2 I report for the zero-order analysis is solid.
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