The Effect Size Is Always Zerohttps://twitter.com/patmarkey/status/1084842687755362305 …
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potential explanation: once the bulk of rational phenomena are explained the only remaining surprises will come from other systems we are witnessing the dawn of a glorious new dark age made possible by the completeness of rationality's success in its own domain
more plausibly, phenomena driving social change are largely not very interesting
ok but have you seen Science Literature
Idk why social science (has a hard time just conceding that humans are complicated and conspicuous causative effects will just be too tricky to tease out conclusively.
I suspect they aren't accessible to non-rational methods either (this is in part pushback against your definition of post-rationalism)
To elaborate further, "rationalism" as in LW is a much smaller set than "rational methods"; most scientific understanding of the world accepts informality and vagueness and is able to have "rational" discourse despite this.
Friend robot, I must disagree with you: There are people and organizations using rational methods to understand and drive social change, they just making large amounts of money doing it, and so are not inclined to share their techniques. Which are boring.
That is, the difference in understanding between a sociology department and a same-headcount marketing firm is enormous. It’s easy to think no one has any idea what’s going on because all we can see is the sociology papers.
Better theory: they're not accessible to psychologists.
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