Every time I see someone describe their beliefs as their "priors," I have to fight the urge to punch a hole in the wall.
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Kind of missing the point. A prior isn't supposed to be a belief about probability. It's supposed to be a mental state with a probabilistic functional profile. Ramsay showed that, given a coherent set of preferences, we can model all human action as maximizing expected utility...
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This is the basis of the homo economicus model of human cognition. It assumes that all our desires are utilities, and all our beliefs are probabilities. But if this model is accurate, it makes concrete predictions about how humans will reason. K&T tested those predictions...
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