same as it ever was
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its both though. the population growth rate does reflect a quadratic (at minimum) growth curve so conviction rate and sentencing policies interact to cause this. the decision to criminalize common small scale drug use is the major factor.
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In overall incarceration rates, yes, but as we've discussed the two are working in tandem. If sentences weren't so harsh tough drug laws wouldn't be so devastating, if drug laws were looser long sentences for small scale drug activity would be much less common.
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