have casually suspected this for some timehttps://twitter.com/hyperfekt/status/978027065516716032 …
"I'm probably wrong but this is the best guess I have right now and I've gotta do something SO---" compare: Box's aphorism about models
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the strong opinion there is "I'm probably wrong" rather than "this is the best guess I have right now" which means your action is guided towards refining the model rather than acting with confidence in the model
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hmm compare also eisenhower on plans and planning?
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IMO it’s generally better to find a context that’s optimal for your config of belief/conviction styles than to try to modify your config to be globally optimal
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You can try and add modifiers to your existing config (I should be more deliberate / I should act faster with imperfect info) but I don’t think I’ve ever met someone who successfully changed their fundamental config
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