have casually suspected this for some timehttps://twitter.com/hyperfekt/status/978027065516716032 …
"I'm probably wrong but this is the best guess I have right now and I've gotta do something SO---" compare: Box's aphorism about models
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the strong opinion there is "I'm probably wrong" rather than "this is the best guess I have right now" which means your action is guided towards refining the model rather than acting with confidence in the model
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hmm compare also eisenhower on plans and planning?
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e.g. "plans don't survive first contact with the enemy"? and "but its better to have one than not"? that seems right to me and is a great example of strong opinions held loosely
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are we just split on the definition of "strong" here?
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possibly. what do you think it means?
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well it's n e b u l o u s, but something like "intense" or "confidently-espoused" I suspect intensity of belief is usually an indicator of sloppiness, either a thing is truly trivial (but these are rarely the subject of Discourse) or neither position is definitively correct
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I think we are a bit split on this. I see it as a measure of decisiveness (related but not identical with confidence) rather than intensity. strong belief is one where you can narrow the decision space quickly with little leftover alternatives/ambiguity. weak is the opposite.
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yeah, the strength is that you've done enough diligence that you're comfortable acting decisively on it until something better comes along
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IMO it’s generally better to find a context that’s optimal for your config of belief/conviction styles than to try to modify your config to be globally optimal
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You can try and add modifiers to your existing config (I should be more deliberate / I should act faster with imperfect info) but I don’t think I’ve ever met someone who successfully changed their fundamental config
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Also you can get a lot of the benefits of alt configs just by associating with different people, eg I am highly agreeable/open my wife is totally the opposite, we’ve saved each other from ourselves countless times
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The meta challenge for people of all configs is to recognise and accept that their configs have pros and cons depending on the context, and so people of different configs are super valuable and it’s a wasteful shame to blow them off over context-dependent disagreement
End of conversation
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