have casually suspected this for some timehttps://twitter.com/hyperfekt/status/978027065516716032 …
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but who can do such a thing? conviction is easily misplaced and this constitutes a form of infohazard that we should be vigilant against (thus the weakly held clause), but it is useful for inoculating against apathy and complacency.
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"I'm probably wrong but this is the best guess I have right now and I've gotta do something SO---" compare: Box's aphorism about models
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the strong opinion there is "I'm probably wrong" rather than "this is the best guess I have right now" which means your action is guided towards refining the model rather than acting with confidence in the model
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hmm compare also eisenhower on plans and planning?
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e.g. "plans don't survive first contact with the enemy"? and "but its better to have one than not"? that seems right to me and is a great example of strong opinions held loosely
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are we just split on the definition of "strong" here?
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possibly. what do you think it means?
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well it's n e b u l o u s, but something like "intense" or "confidently-espoused" I suspect intensity of belief is usually an indicator of sloppiness, either a thing is truly trivial (but these are rarely the subject of Discourse) or neither position is definitively correct
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