expectation: long term effects of Roe v Wade overturn not huge, result is more like a peace treaty than a new war, everything goes back to the state level as God intended, people get Chill Unless the Left does something really really stupid Don't do anything stupid pls
Oho yes the neoreactionary case for abortion :D My guess is it doesn't actually play out like that, expect the pregnancies that are actually terminated are predominantly in higher SES women. Guess we could check this huh
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you should check the data on this dude.https://www.guttmacher.org/infographic/2016/abortion-patients-are-disproportionately-poor-and-low-income …
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the issue of abortion is a classic example of cultural divide between upper bourgeois and lower bourgeoisie/prole values and behavior actually splitting in maximally hypocritical ways.
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upper booj strongly support abortion rights but never have abortions. lower booj/prole are much more strongly opposed to abortions but they have them much more frequently. you see the same pattern on divorce btw. strongly related issues actually.
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Aha! Glad I hedged :D Wonder how much of this is coastal vs inland too. Not enough to look it up natch, happier to float aware of my uncertainty
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https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/ss/ss6624a1.htm?s_cid=ss6624a1_w#T1_down … in short, blue states (and especially large population urban coastal states) have higher abortion rates
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You may want to revisit the recent tweetstorms from the Irish referendum... those that could afford to travel abroad, did so. Those that couldn’t, took dangerous & horrific underground methods. Banning it won’t stop it, it just makes it unsafe for the poor (and makes more poor).
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I agree with your analysis but disagree with your policy prescription. I agree with our robot friend that it's not a hill worth dying on for the left. It has essentially marginalized left parties in vast swathes of the states because of the roe v. wade litmus test.
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basically you can't expect people to vote against their religious beliefs that tell them "this is a mortal sin equivalent to murder". aint gonna happen. culture leads politics, not the other way around. those communities would benefit a lot from social democratic policies though.
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so in order to get an electoral win and move the policy landscape leftward you have to drop the litmus test and be willing to let people live according to their religious beliefs, even if it creates bad outcomes (like black market abortions).
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that said: we're a federation of states. as long as interstate travel is available (and affordable) it's not that big of a problem, big picture wise. bus tickets solve a lot of problems.
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So if Roe v Wade is overturned, it’ll be a state by state thing? That is less bad than it could have been.
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yes exactly. always understand that in the U.S. the realities of legislation are nearly always handled by the states on an individual state basis. the saving grace of our system is that we're not as centralized as it looks sometimes.
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Roe v. Wade isn't even a law actually. It's a judicial statute that says "no state shall pass a law curtailing a woman's right to have an abortion". So if the statute is repealed it just means that some states (a minority of them probably) will try to legislate abortion bans.
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