A little piece of history has just been made on the banks of the Thames opposite Westminster @IMOHQ, where an industry that carries 80% of global trade finally agreed to start cutting its emissions. 50% on 2008 levels by 2050…
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Analysts say on its own it's not in line with 1.5C emission pathways, but a huge leap for a sector that 12 months ago was fiercely resisting any sort of curbs.
@IPCC_CH 1.5C report this year likely to crank up pressure.Show this thread
The deal - the key bit attached below - opens the chance that it could be ratcheted up o the future, which seems to be the desire of small island states, the EU and some African/Southpic.twitter.com/4hODyWB1qM
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According to
@UCL_Energy 'from the 2030’s, it is highly likely that new ocean-going vessels that transport over 80% of global trade will be free from fossil fuels' - there are not many other ways of meeting that goalShow this thread -
Broad and warm support from all countries bar 2 that "reserved" their position on specifics - Saudi Arabia and US - the latter reaffirming its plan to quit the Paris Agreement + complaining of references to CBDR-RC.
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Worth adding deal also received support from leading business groups such as
@shippingics, which you'd think bodes well for implementation.@MaerskLine +@Cargill are other businesses that have pushed for a tough GHG deal.Show this thread -
Those who have not followed
@IMOHQ closely may not think this is ambitious... and it's clear that it's *not* in line with 1.5C. But political context matters, and that makes this significant.Show this thread -
As for what comes next... here's how
@OECD's ITF think tank reckons you decarbonise#shipping by 2035https://www.itf-oecd.org/decarbonising-maritime-transport-2035 …Show this thread
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What will actually drive this move? No price of carbon? No regulation? No chance flag states will legislate. Help me understand how this very good intention will be effected.
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I could try and explain here but it's complicated - UCL have a decent Q&A here which is worth 5 mins of your time http://www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk/files/ucl_admin/UCL_QA_IMO_Strategy_Final.pdf …
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Peaking “as soon as possible” seems meaningless to me. Need a date, clarity on bindingness and what happens if countries don’t make it? And what about flag carriers—who “owns” those emissions? Thx Ed
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