Conversation

Smerity
@Smerity
Q: re how invasive neural link tech would need to be.
@elonmusk
thinks it will be invasive but similar to lasik. Without it equivalent to your ears against a factory's wall - no good information. Sees this as necessary to maintain competitive advantage vs rapid progress of AI.
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@Smerity
Even if half of all new produced vehicles are autonomous, it's 2%/year that would be pushed to unemployed.
@elonmusk
thinks AGI is going to be an issue before self driving unemployment - thinks five to ten years before AGI beats humans generally. Insanely optimistic estimate O_o
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Smerity
@Smerity
@elonmusk
thinks there's no limit in energy for humans - we have a useful fusion reactor in the sky - our limit is purely on how many photovoltaics we have.
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@Smerity
Ask to Jim: what are the exciting architectures? On chip memory to ensure data exactly next to compute and partitioning problems to have high bandwidth interconnects where you need it.
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@Smerity
Q to Elon: How do we convince society as a whole that AI will be better, convince them to give trust, when statistics and intuition can be at odds.
@elonmusk
thinks over time statistics will win out - even anecdotally / occasional video evidence to overwhelm negative anecdotes.
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@Smerity
@elonmusk
says that of the tragic failure cases in the past, they had extensive investigations (internal + govt) to analyze + show it wasn't an obvious fault of Tesla. He notes there will be many continued battles going forward however.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q re what AGI will look like to arrive -
@karpathy
and
@elonmusk
both claim it will be the jump that catches us. Extreme sub human behaviour to super human with no long duration "near" human level. It won't work until it really does.
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@Smerity
Continued Q re AGI - Exponentials seem to continue until they don't want hardware hitting limits (Moore's) far before requirements of human brain. Jim disagrees, that he has seen this fear in the past, but that the sheer force of humanity's progress keeps pushing hw forward.
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@Smerity
Technology has continually been predicted to stop moving forward but that Jim plans to ignore that the rest of his life as it hasn't been true so far.
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@Smerity
Q re adversarial protection on Tesla vehicles. Stop signs on a short.
@elonmusk
says stop signs are fine - they'll be geocoded - and that the real issue will be "bullying" of AI cars. You'll always be able to cut off a self driving car as it won't fight a human on that.
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