OK gang! Let's raise some awareness about the FACTS around detransition! 1/
#DetransAwarenessDay
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When I write about detransition, I like to use an estimated rate of between 1 and 3 percent of people who transition. But here's a secret, between you and me: The numbers don't reeeeeally support that. They support a rate of >1%. 2/
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The overall research on detransition is still quite weak, and I want to give as generous a reading as possible to the criticsms. So, when I say 1-3%, I'm overweighting studies that show a higher rate, out of caution. 3/
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This means I have to do quite a lot of cherry picking, to support my higher, more conservative estimate. Most studies give numbers more like this one, which found 0.4% regret: https://mermaidsuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/charing-Cross-study-nhs.pdf … Most studies support a <1% rate of detransition. 4/
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Replying to @e_urq
The source you link to here is flawed. Firstly it's only a summary of research, and I haven't seen (though it may exist) a full account of this research published anywhere. Hugely relevant details are missing from this summary, and yet that's the best mermaid can link to- why?
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Replying to @pastasnack_e @e_urq
Second, scanning patient reports for stated regret is inadequate. You only get those who - are still attending appointments - at an appointment, actively says they regret transition Much better would be to interview a representative sample and actually ask how they feel
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Yeah, I mean, I linked to an easy to find example. Studies showing <1% are easy to find, studies showing >1% are difficult. To me that suggests the rate is, at most, fairly low compared to similar procedures. I estimate 1-3% based on overweighting studies that find above 1%.
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