Evan Urquhart

This means I have to do quite a lot of cherry picking, to support my higher, more conservative estimate. Most studies give numbers more like this one, which found 0.4% regret: https://mermaidsuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/charing-Cross-study-nhs.pdf … Most studies support a <1% rate of detransition. 4/ #DetransAwarenessDay

So, the most important fact about detransition is that it's astoundingly rare for this type of medical treatment. Glad to get that sorted out. Hopefully we're all feeling really aware! Next we'll talk about retransition. 6/ #DetransAwarenessDay

Retransition is even less well studied than detransition, so we're in extra dicey territory trying to estimate the rate at which people who detransition go on to retransition at a later point. HOWEVER... 7/ #DetransAwarenessDay

...there are some useful numbers that can give us a framework for thinking about how common retransition is, and spoiler alert, it's almost certainly extremely common. 8/ #DetransAwarenessDay

In the same UK research I linked to above, they found 16 people who had regrets and/or had detransitioned. Of those, 10 had only detransitioned temporarily. 10 of 16 retransitioned. 9/ again: https://mermaidsuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/charing-Cross-study-nhs.pdf … #DetransAwarenessDay

When you look at the sparse numbers around retransition, you generally find >50%. Now, as I said above, I prefer conservative estimates. I think 50% is a reasonable back-of-the-envelope guess as to how many who detransition stay detransitioned. 10/ #DetransAwarenessDay

I wouldn't bet my life on 50%. Permanent detransition could be being under counted in myriad ways, or (this is more supported by the evidence) retransition rates could be much higher. But 50% is reasonable, for a conservative estimate. 11/ #DetransAwarenessDay