Generally when there's a landslide (as in the UK tonight) everyone's hot takes are mostly right and when there's a close result everyone's hot takes are mostly wrong.
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You probably CAN blame Corbyn AND Brexit AND Labour AND going too far to the left AND [insert hypothesis here], because you need some combination of ALL of those things for them to lose to the Tories by 14 points or whatever it's going to wind up being.
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That same logic can be applied in close elections, Nate. You CAN blame Jill Stein voters AND racism AND evangelicals AND Hillary’s neglect of Wisconsin, bc the margin was so thin anything was determinative.
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Yeah, and he says this all the time.
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Its different. In nates example tge margin itself is evidence where as in your example you simply cant rule them out, but theres no reason to believe any one of them were causal.
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No, I think that’s wrong. In a close election, any single domino could have fallen differently and there’d have been a different result. In a landslide, you have to look for something bigger that explains why all the dominos fell at once. None of them are determinative alone.
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Except Hillary could’ve lost if everyone for Stein voted for her and Trumps hemorrhage to Johnson was tremendously bigger
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The funny thing is: If third party voters were forced to vote for Hillary or Trump, Trump would've won the electoral college by a larger margin.
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And shutting down recounts in MI/WI/PA
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When has a recount ever worked
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I'm not sure if you listened to much of the podcasting or read much of the writing he did post 2016, but he's actually made that point before. The Comey letter was the last in a series of events that pushed Hillary over the line, but without all of them she may have won.
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About 62,000,000 voted for trump. About 73,000,000 voted for someone other than trump. About 120,000,000 eligible voters did not vote. Trump didn't win. Hillary didn't win. The United States lost.
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