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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
SemiAnalysis Boutique Semiconductor Research and Consulting DMs are open for consulting, quotes, or to talk shop
semianalysis.comJoined April 2018
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16.7K Followers

Dylan Patel’s Tweets

Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
They know Intel is committed to the $6B annual dividend. No semiconductor company pays a 4.8% dividend yield besides $INTC By the way did you know Intel's salary cuts, bonus suspension, promotion pause, and 401k halving are saving them $3B annually..... 🙄
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Bionic_squash
@SquashBionic
Ohhh Pat Gelsinger and David zinsner bought some intel stock barrons.com/articles/intel
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Sony causally selling nearly 2x as many PlayStations from 3.9M to 7.1M YoY This implies suppliers were able to finally catch up. Given AMD already reported earnings and they don't have this crazy bump it's safe to say they were not the gating factor in PlayStation supply Who was?
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
It should be noted Anthropic has always been one to try new hardware. They were listed on some marketing materials for Trainium in the past, but my understanding is they never switched close to fully.
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
The most important thing to note is AMD is no longer supply constrained in Datacenter. Yes they grew somewhat but far less than they could have. Even with massive market share gains versus Intel, it's noteworthy that AMD didn't sell every server ship they could make.
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
EUV mask blank sales are down hugely! Background, Hoya is by far the largest in mask blanks, the fabs/shops pattern blanks with ebeam and then use that in lithography tools to pattern wafers Partially competition-driven, but mostly end markets Who is cutting mask blank purchases?
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Data center revenue $1.66 billion vs consensus $1.64 billion Gaming revenue $1.64 billion vs consensus $1.51 billion Client revenue $903 million vs consensus $995.5 million Embedded revenue $1.40 billion vs consensus $1.33 billion
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Gaming grew 0.8% from $1631M to $1644M Embedded grew 7.2% from $1303M to $1397M. Datacenter undergrew expectations while client shrank less than Intel's. Embedded actually undergrew Intel PSG (not exactly analogous groups), which is interesting.
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
The segment-level information is illuminating, and also odd. AMD didn't provide the same breakdowns it usually does, so had to create them myself... Datacenter grew at 2.9% QoQ, from $1609M to $1655M to very tepid Client shrank 11.6% QoQ, from $1022M to $903M
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
AMD Reports a $149M operating loss in their Q4 2022 earnings report. Revenue up 16% to $5.6B and margins are down to 43%. Revenue guidance is $5.3B, 10% YoY decrease Overall, still positive when compared to what happened to Intel. Loss due to Xilinx acquisition. $INTC $AMD
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Samsung is backstabbing the memory cartel and using the current oversupply to take market share! While other firms such as
@MicronTech
, SK Hynix,
@westerndigital
, and Kioxia cut 2023 Capex by as much as 50%, Samsung says 2023 Capex will be similar to 2022 Capex! $MU $SSNLF $WDC
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Samsung Backstabs The DRAM Cartel Capital Expenditure Cuts 130 Manufacturing Projects 60 Companies Report Samsung swims against the tide as the industry cuts capital expenditures and delays manufacturing ramps $TSM $SSNLF $INTC $980.HK $HXSCF $MU $UMC $GFS semianalysis.com/p/samsung-back
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Just spent a bit of time trying to see if humanity has made a 1-mole transistor (6.023*10^23) My rough math tells me humanity is more like at 1*10^22. DRAM transistor production blows the socks off of logic transistor production. It's not even close.
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Semiconductor Bear Market Rally? Inventory Analysis, 71 Companies Over 25 Years Everyone's aware of the semiconductor downturn, but many questions How bad will the downturn get? How high are inventory levels going to grow? How many orders will be canceled?
semianalysis.com
Semiconductor Bear Market Rally? – Inventory Analysis Of 71 Companies Over 25 Years
Everyone is aware of the semiconductor downturn, but many questions remain. How bad will the semiconductor downturn get? How high are inventory levels going to grow? How many orders will be canceled?...
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Just to be clear, Intel decision to keep the dividend means they are explicitly making a choice to cut new fab construction and do layoffs instead. The
@intel
management team and board of directors are cowards.
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Lotta smoke Intel is blowing on process technology, but notice Meteor Lake is ramp in 2H 2023 instead of ramping Q4 2022 like it was supposed to with volume launch mid 2023. This just proves manufacturing ready is meaningless
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
So Intel is also changing how they depreciate their equipment from 5 years to 8 years, which is artificially improving earnings a huge amount Q1, but the reality is that free cash flow is what matters and Intel FCF is tanking so hard, they have to cut projects via
@quinwoodlncap
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
It cannot be understated how bad Q1 will be. -$0.80 EPS... They will burn billions, while doing layoffs, and canceling long-term investments, yet they continue to pay the dividend Ridiculously short-sighted from management GAAP tax rate is funny, to say the least, at negative 84%
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Actual vs Consensus is interesting... Q4 2022 was $14.04B vs $14.49B Client Computing - $6.63B vs $7.42B Network & Edge - $2.06B vs $2.21B Mobileye - $565M vs $435.1M Intel Foundry Services - $319M vs $191.5M EPS 10c vs 19c Operating margin 4.3% vs 7.22% Gross margin 43.8% vs 45%
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Holy moly Intel... Gross margins are now 39.2%! Even worse is outlook of 34.1% for the next quarter! Reminder, Intel use to get ~60% gross margins. They are saying revenue Q1 is ~$11B vs $18.4B the prior year..... -$4B cashflow in 2022, 2023 will be worse CUT THE DIVIDEND! $INTC
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Dylan Patel Retweeted
Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
European criticism of the Inflation Reduction Act's narrow definition of friend-shoring isn't a surprise. But it is strange that most of Europe now believes the IRA is a massive threat to European industry, while even more discriminatory Chinese policies are largely ignored 1/
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
My latest productivity hack: Use Whisper AI to transcribe my speech then feed that into chatGPT which reformats, adds punctuation, fix grammar, etc without altering my meaning. I'm ~105 WPM typing but need spell check after + seated at computer Talking I get up to 210WPM easy
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
If you want to know more beyond what I said about it being an AI chip on SoI process, please just reply and mention it, I'm not gonna send out their info myself given the age. They will reach out via DMs.
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
I know 3 high school juniors who have already taped out a test chip that they designed themselves. The most impressive part, they funded this tape out by teaching cohorts of 10-week-long AI classes to other high schoolers and middle schoolers. 🫠 Anyone wanna angel invest?
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
Lam Research is laying off 1,300, with the biggest affected group being manufacturing in the US While partially due to a slowdown in the business, it is also driven largely by them outsourcing >1/3 of their manufacturing out of the US
@LamResearch
$LRCX
semianalysis.com
Lam Research Is Outsourcing More Than 1/3 Of Their Manufacturing To Malaysia
The US will continue to lose semiconductors, not only in chip manufacturing, but also in the expertise related to tool production. Furthermore, rather than going to low cost allies of the US, a huge...
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Dylan Patel Retweeted
Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
The AI Brick Wall A Practical Limit For Scaling Dense Transformer Models How GPT 4 will break past this barrier Training costs for LaMDA, YaML, CaLM, Gopher, Chinchilla, MT-NLG, PaLM, GPT 3, Bloom, Jurassic, and more from Google, Yandex, MosaicML $NVDA
semianalysis.com
The AI Brick Wall – A Practical Limit For Scaling Dense Transformer Models, and How GPT 4 Will...
Large generative AI models unlock massive value for the world, but the picture isn’t only roses. Costs for training for these civilization-redefining models have been ballooning at an incredible...
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Dylan Patel
@dylan522p
The AI Brick Wall A Practical Limit For Scaling Dense Transformer Models How GPT 4 will break past this barrier Training costs for LaMDA, YaML, CaLM, Gopher, Chinchilla, MT-NLG, PaLM, GPT 3, Bloom, Jurassic, and more from Google, Yandex, MosaicML $NVDA
semianalysis.com
The AI Brick Wall – A Practical Limit For Scaling Dense Transformer Models, and How GPT 4 Will...
Large generative AI models unlock massive value for the world, but the picture isn’t only roses. Costs for training for these civilization-redefining models have been ballooning at an incredible...
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