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dwallacewells's profile
David Wallace-Wells
David Wallace-Wells
David Wallace-Wells
@dwallacewells

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David Wallace-Wells

@dwallacewells

Central Park East, New York magazine, THE UNINHABITABLE EARTH.

Joined March 2011

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    David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

    “There is still no plan for the end of the coronavirus crisis. Aside from flattening the curve to ease the burden on the health-care system, the country has accomplished essentially none of the necessary preparatory work required to begin to reopen.” (1/x)https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/white-house-plan-for-ending-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders.html …

    5:28 AM - 7 May 2020
    • 631 Retweets
    • 1,145 Likes
    • brooke belcher Jessica Yin Mei kathleen curry Katie O'Hara Lyn Harris Born Mediocre Christine Caston Fenokee
    35 replies 631 retweets 1,145 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “That is true by nearly every metric, but let’s begin with testing, the most fundamental. On March 30, 117,450 COVID-19 tests were conducted nationally. On April 30, it was 229,599. Testing had only doubled during a month designed to buy time to mount a sufficient response.”

        1 reply 16 retweets 75 likes
        Show this thread
      3. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “How many tests would we need to be able to safely open up, as we are already beginning to anyway? Estimates vary, but one low-end estimate puts the number at 500,000 to 700,000 tests every day — two to three times the capacity we have today. That’s the low end.”

        1 reply 19 retweets 64 likes
        Show this thread
      4. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “Another estimate comes from economist Paul Romer: 3 million every day. A third calls for 5 million tests daily by June and 20 million every day before proceeding to full reopening. Five million is about 25 times what we are doing now; 20 million is nearly a hundred times more.”

        1 reply 20 retweets 62 likes
        Show this thread
      5. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        Then there are contact tracers. “How many of those would we need? Last week, a group of powerful former federal public-health officials called for around 180,000 of them; other proposals range from 100,000 to 300,000....”

        2 replies 13 retweets 58 likes
        Show this thread
      6. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “In response, NPR conducted a nationwide survey and found 7,602 currently working across 41 states. Surge plans would bring that total to 36,587 — barely a sixth of the estimated need.”

        1 reply 13 retweets 52 likes
        Show this thread
      7. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “When the White House first released its guidelines for ‘opening up America again,’ on April 15, it suggested that reopening would only be advisable following a ‘downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period.’ That is not the case for the U.S. as a whole.”

        1 reply 15 retweets 51 likes
        Show this thread
      8. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “On May 6, there were 23,841 new cases reported; on April 23, there were 7,588 new cases reported; and on April 28, there were 22,541 new cases reported.”

        2 replies 12 retweets 45 likes
        Show this thread
      9. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “And while some of those new cases reflect the expansion of testing capacity, the death totals are far less ambiguous. On May 6, there were 2,144 deaths from COVID-19 nationally; on April 28, it was 1,369; on April 23, it was 1,721.”

        1 reply 9 retweets 46 likes
        Show this thread
      10. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “On May 4, a leaked report from the CDC suggested that, rather than moving in the right direction, the death totals were likely to get considerably worse very fast — with an average of about 3,000 deaths (and 200,000 new cases) a day as soon as June 1.”

        1 reply 17 retweets 56 likes
        Show this thread
      11. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “But the much-talked-about headline numbers did not communicate all that well just how dire the near future depicted by the model really was.”

        1 reply 12 retweets 43 likes
        Show this thread
      12. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “For the lifetime of the model’s projections, no day of data came close to the median prediction. For the last two weeks, the results have fallen at or above the model’s 75th-percentile projection. That percentile, on June 1, projects more than 7,500 deaths every day.”

        1 reply 18 retweets 49 likes
        Show this thread
      13. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “For most of the lifetime of the model, daily deaths fell at or above the 97th-percentile projection. For June 1, that projection is for 15,000 deaths every day.”

        1 reply 16 retweets 49 likes
        Show this thread
      14. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        The conditions that produced that data — less social distancing, fewer lockdowns — are more like what we will see going forward than what we’ve seen the last two weeks.

        1 reply 12 retweets 46 likes
        Show this thread
      15. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        “If that rate held for a month, it would produce 750,000 deaths just in June. And though the leaked projections end June 1, the model shows so sign of flattening then, which means, as far as the CDC is concerned, the daily totals could grow as the summer goes on.”

        2 replies 19 retweets 52 likes
        Show this thread
      16. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        By every metric, we have utterly failed to prepare ourselves for the reopening we are now beginning.

        2 replies 39 retweets 95 likes
        Show this thread
      17. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 7 May 2020

        We have perhaps 1/25th of the testing we need, 1/25th of the contact tracers we need, and no sign of the sustained decline in infections or deaths we were told was a necessary precondition for reopening anywhere. We are beginning to reopen nearly everywhere. (X/x)

        4 replies 26 retweets 93 likes
        Show this thread
      18. End of conversation

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