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dwallacewells's profile
David Wallace-Wells
David Wallace-Wells
David Wallace-Wells
@dwallacewells

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David Wallace-Wells

@dwallacewells

Central Park East, New York magazine, THE UNINHABITABLE EARTH.

Joined March 2011

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    David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

    The view from quarantine is deeply misleading—and falsely encouraging—about the state of the disease. (1/x)https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-are-probably-only-a-tenth-of-the-way-through-the-pandemic.html …

    4:17 AM - 18 Apr 2020
    • 272 Retweets
    • 583 Likes
    • Earth is now over. CRolz 🍷☀️✈️ Anna Jurgensen Jae Rodgers Johnny Ollie No thank you I've had enough 2020 LindyLoo Morgan Evetts
    11 replies 272 retweets 583 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        In some places — New York, Washington, California — the pandemic has stabilized, with number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths either flattening or declining. This is obviously good news, better than the alternative.

        1 reply 9 retweets 76 likes
        Show this thread
      3. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        But that news is only emerging from a few early hot spots, after a month or more of total lockdown.

        1 reply 6 retweets 78 likes
        Show this thread
      4. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        Nationally, deaths are still higher each day than the last, despite the fact that the country is now weeks into shutdown (and longer into a state of aggressive social distancing).

        4 replies 14 retweets 96 likes
        Show this thread
      5. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        And though there is good news coming out of those hotspots, it is incredibly limited food news, for two big reasons.

        2 replies 4 retweets 58 likes
        Show this thread
      6. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        The first applies to the hotspots themselves: we have turned the corner, or reached this plateau, only through massively disruptive isolation policies.

        1 reply 7 retweets 75 likes
        Show this thread
      7. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        These trends will not continue pst any degree of “opening up,” even very limited forms of it.

        1 reply 6 retweets 76 likes
        Show this thread
      8. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        Of course, there are policies we can deploy to dampen the spread far below its “natural” exponential rate—social distancing, large scale testing.

        1 reply 4 retweets 60 likes
        Show this thread
      9. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        But even in the best of circumstances, the spread won’t be nearly as controlled as it has been for the past month. How could it be? We’ve essentially eliminated the vast majority of opportunities for the virus to spread...

        2 replies 7 retweets 63 likes
        Show this thread
      10. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        ...and even a very limited opening, monitored by mass testing, will multiply those opportunities many times over from where we are now.

        1 reply 4 retweets 54 likes
        Show this thread
      11. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        The second big reason the good news from hotspots is only very limited good news is that it probably reflects control over only, at most, 5% of the ultimate shape of the pandemic. We haven’t gotten it under control; we’ve only gotten 5% of it under control.

        1 reply 6 retweets 66 likes
        Show this thread
      12. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        That’s because probably only 5% of the public has been exposed, to this point, and conceivably a lot less.

        1 reply 5 retweets 58 likes
        Show this thread
      13. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        Even in the Bay Area, where we’d expect considerably more exposure than the country as a whole, a new study found only 2-4% of the population with antibodies—and that finding has already been called into question as too high.

        2 replies 6 retweets 69 likes
        Show this thread
      14. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        For the pandemic to truly end will require one of three things: a vaccine, probably a year away, a “cure,” whose timeline is murkier but probably about as long, or herd immunity, which requires 60% exposure—at least twelve times the current level.

        5 replies 13 retweets 82 likes
        Show this thread
      15. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        That means twelve times as many infections, and roughly that many hospitalizations and deaths (though treatments will likely improve even before we get to a cure).

        1 reply 6 retweets 47 likes
        Show this thread
      16. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        And we could be considerably farther from that herd immunity endgame, if less than five percent is exposed, or if we need eighty percent exposure to achieve immunity. Conceivably, we could be only one eightieth through the pandemic.

        2 replies 8 retweets 61 likes
        Show this thread
      17. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        Over the last few weeks, we have heard a lot about mass testing—and it is essential. But it won’t bring about the end of the pandemic, only allow us to live somewhat more comfortably and openly through it.

        1 reply 8 retweets 66 likes
        Show this thread
      18. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        That period of moderated fear will end only with a vaccine, a cure, or herd immunity. And of those three, the only one we can count on is immunity.

        6 replies 9 retweets 57 likes
        Show this thread
      19. David Wallace-Wells‏ @dwallacewells 18 Apr 2020

        Or—we think we can count on it. Because we don't yet know how many people who survive carry antibodies, or how long the immunity of those that do carry them lasts. On herd immunity, too, we are flying somewhat blind, and the trip to there from here is very long indeed. (x/x)

        4 replies 10 retweets 91 likes
        Show this thread
      20. End of conversation

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