Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
dvir_a's profile
Dvir Aran
Dvir Aran
Dvir Aran
@dvir_a

Tweets

Dvir Aran

@dvir_a

Biomedical Data Science Lab; Assistant Professor @ Technion, Israel.

Israel
aran-lab.com
Joined October 2009

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

      Dvir Aran Retweeted Amir Argoetti

      Vaccine impact in Israel: changing trends. Analysis thread with @AArgoetti. From about a month and a half ago we are experiencing a new “Delta” burst. Cases are accumulating, and more and more severe patients are in the hospitals.https://twitter.com/AArgoetti/status/1420057245971361802 …

      Dvir Aran added,

      Amir Argoetti @AArgoetti
      שינוי מגמה בארץ - הגל ״תפס״ את הלא מחוסנים. @dvir_a ואנוכי הסתכלנו על המידע העדכני וניסינו לנתח את המידע הגולמי על מנת שנוכל להעריך טוב יותר את מצב התחלואה ואת יעילות החיסון. שרשור!🧵 >
      Show this thread
      20 replies 272 retweets 758 likes
      Show this thread
      Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

      Dvir Aran Retweeted Dvir Aran

      You’ve probably seen reports from Israel on low vaccine effectiveness in this wave. Is it because of Delta? Waning immunity? We think the reason is mostly that we got the denominator wrong.https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1417813556888735750 …

      Dvir Aran added,

      Dvir Aran @dvir_a
      Are we seeing immunity waning in Israel? The MoH shared some raw data, and together with @geller_mic we tried to get a qualitative answer to this question. TL;DR – it seems that there is immunity waning, increasing risk of infection of early vaccinated by ~80%. ==>
      Show this thread
      9:30 AM - 27 Jul 2021
      • 325 Retweets
      • 895 Likes
      • Jörg Honegger Marc Goldwein - GET VAXXED! caryn 🦉 emmjade WoC James Sam Fenster Puga 🇨🇦 Tam 😷 💉 💉💉 Pfi-Mod² Squad
      23 replies 325 retweets 895 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

          See this graph. Until mid-July, the number (normalized to group size) of severe cases in the 65+ group was more or less similar between vaccined and unvaccined. This seemed troubling. But in the last 10 days trends have changed,pic.twitter.com/JnWPhiJRlu

          26 replies 118 retweets 426 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

          and now there are almost 3 times more daily new unvaccined severe cases. Looking at this plot, it seems that the R in the vaccined group is very close to 1, but in the last 10 days its almost 4 in the unvaccined group. We think its as expected with no mitigations beyond vaccines.

          6 replies 55 retweets 341 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

          So why does it look like there is no difference until mid-July? @AArgoetti looked at the trends of cases in cities stratified by their vaccination rates.pic.twitter.com/VjuIti7nzQ

          5 replies 24 retweets 243 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

          We can see that cities on the lower quartile had low number of cases until recently, but since mid-July, most cases are coming from those cities.

          4 replies 19 retweets 210 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

          This is what we got wrong. This “wave” started from cities with high vaccination rate and couldn’t “find” unvaccined adults at risk. The denominator we need to use until mid-July is >95% vaccination rate and not the country’s average.

          14 replies 88 retweets 606 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

          So to summarize, the vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases and probably also symptomatic diseases, even for those vaccinated early.

          28 replies 145 retweets 1,014 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Dvir Aran‏ @dvir_a 27 Jul 2021

          Just to correct one misconception from my thread - many of you understood that we think there is no waning immunity. This analysis does not reject the waning hypothesis, it just shows that the vaccines are still highly effective even with possible waning.

          21 replies 63 retweets 608 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Freedom1st‏ @freedomis1st 27 Jul 2021
          Replying to @dvir_a

          You think or you know?

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Rosselanor‏ @Rosselanor1 28 Jul 2021
          Replying to @freedomis1st @dvir_a

          That is a nature of science - U always just "think with some level of probability". Every theory has some weak points or something we don't know yet, so very few real sciencists will tell U "I know it 100 %". But thanks to this science helps us as a mankind to constantly move on.

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Dr Paul Mackey‏ @auscandoc 27 Jul 2021
          Replying to @dvir_a

          Thank you for this clarification. So important.

          0 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info