Since I started following US politics in the 1990s, 1 simple heuristic has been the most reliable guide: the GOP, at every juncture or decision point, will do/say/be the worst possible thing. The bulk of analytical errors in punditry trace to ignoring or doubting that heuristic.https://twitter.com/ATVSPoseur/status/1223317762061340674 …
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Last, last thing: if you want to see the ultimate example of how liberals have deceived themselves about the nature of the GOP...watch West Wing. Arnold Vinick is the Republican of the center-left imagination, a fantasy they mistook for reality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_Vinick …
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Last, last, last thing: worth remembering that people who DO accurately diagnose the GOP have consistently been marginalized as "partisan extremists." Being correct over & over & over again has done approximately nothing to diminish this dynamic; it is still operative.
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One episode that illustrates my point: the GOP's famous post-2012-election "autopsy." It lamented an increasingly old, white party & recommended reaching out to minorities, women, & young people -- and, specifically, softening on immigration.https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/03/what-you-need-to-read-in-the-rnc-election-autopsy-report/274112/ …
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Those of us with an appropriately dismal view of the GOP looked at those recommendations & immediately concluded they were fanciful nonsense, that there was too much gathered momentum toward white identity politics for elites to be able to engineer a course correction.
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But it was *exactly* what VSPs & mainstream pundits wanted to hear, exactly the GOP they'd been imagining for so long, so they heralded it as a turning point. We know how that turned out: the dirty hippies were correct, the VSPs biffed it again, & no one learned anything.
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I see that with "legal-Twitter." Conservatives are offended when you call adherence to originalism a sham. Because, for them, it isn't (not completely). But, for most of their once fellow-travelers that have aligned with Trump, it was just a means to an end. See also the deficit
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Watch originalism come into conflict with the immediate interests of the right coalition and see how many of those principled originalists stick to their guns. My guess is around 0%.
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Highly advise listening to this This American Life episode where a lifelong GOP member absolutely dumbfounded to find himself the only one outraged at open racism towards the growing Somali-American community:https://www.thisamericanlife.org/600/will-i-know-anyone-at-this-party …
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That episode was so, so incredibly good & powerful, and a perfect illustration of what I'm talking about. There's something really poignant about this guy waking up, blinking, looking around, realizing, "they've all been racists all this time?"
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I would relate this to my experience with the evangelical church — I left the church years ago and thought I was as cynical as could be about them, but I was still shocked by their blatant ADORATION of DJT —
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It violated everything they ever told me they believed in. And I thought they were misguided in many ways when they told me these things, but I thought they were sincere.
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